Outlook 2018, eight development prospect of China's new energy automotive industry-Foshan Gulineng Power Technology Co.,Ltd

Outlook 2018, eight development prospect of China's new energy automotive industry

Release time:：

2018-08-27

In just the past 2017 years, China's new energy automotive industry to continue according to the national planning target strongly pushing forward the route and production and sale of industry

In just the past 2017 years, China's new energy automotive industry to continue according to the national planning target strongly pushing forward the route and production and sale of industry, according to data released by the RGL association in 2017, production and marketing of new energy vehicles in China are close to 800000, 794000 and 777000, respectively, year-on-year growth of 53.8% and 53.3%, respectively, in 2017, new energy automobile production has occupied 2.7% of the overall auto market.

Back in 2017, double integral, the subsidy policy changes of the New Deal has been throughout the year, always dial nerve of every industry, intelligent vehicle, unmanned become the focus of most of the auto industry, all kinds of BBS took pains to discuss eloquent, various media reports, the new forces of building cars were surging, all kinds of public activities, strategic cooperation, high finance organizations. New ideas, new model and new problems emerge in endlessly, the hard to avoid in the torrent sway in the wind, even will be temporarily blinded eyes, misguided, the trend of changes in the global industry has been established, the pace of progress began speeding up, the prospects for the future.

Looking forward to 2018, we analyze and forecast the development prospect of China's new energy vehicle industry from the following eight aspects, hoping to provide an observation perspective and reference to the practitioners of new energy vehicles and friends who pay attention to new energy vehicles.

1. The production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million in 2018, and the new energy vehicle industry is taking shape, forming a relatively complete industrial chain

Since 2015, the production and sales of China's new energy vehicles have always been in doubt and reached new highs, which has surprised many people inside and outside the industry. The main reason is that people always have doubts about the Chinese government's determination to develop new energy vehicles, and even make an analogy between new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry.

In fact, the development of new energy vehicles has basically established, the wheel of history began to roll forward.

After that, we saw the policies come out frequently, and the annual production and sales target was constantly broken. Even if there were "cheating and subsidies", the determination of the country to vigorously develop new energy vehicles did not be shaken.

If the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceed 1 million in 2018, it will be a very significant event for China's new energy vehicle industry. It represents the beginning of new energy vehicle industry chain which can support the scale of millions.

2. The initial success of the pure electric strategy is expected to attract more attention to fuel cells, plug-in and add-ons

If nothing happens, there will be two major events in the industry in 2018, namely ningde times and baic new energy, the two leading enterprises in the new energy automobile industry chain, will successively land in the a-share market. The strategy of "pure electric power" and "strengthening the superior and strengthening the strong" that the Chinese government has adhered to for many years has achieved initial results.

After the industry leader is connected with the capital market, it will indicate that the industry starts to enter the knockout stage, and the resources are further concentrated in the superior enterprises, which is more conducive to the expansion and strengthening of the excellent enterprises.

At the same time, the drawbacks of the pure electric technology route are also beginning to emerge. The technical advantages of fuel cells, plug-in hybrid and add-ons, etc. as technical supplementary solutions in some application areas, will receive more policy attention and support.

3. Charging facilities will enter the high-speed growth period driven by real and accurate market demand

The issue of charging facilities "chicken or egg first" has been the focus of debate in the industry in the past few years. With the continuous growth of the number of new energy vehicles, the problem of insufficient charging infrastructure is increasingly prominent, and the overall construction scale has seriously lagged behind.

Data show that by the end of 2017, there were 450,000 charging piles in China, with a ratio of about 3.8 to 1.

Recently, miao wei, minister of industry and information technology, publicly pointed out that "charging infrastructure is still a short board for our development". According to the annual sales volume of 2 million vehicles and the holding volume of 5 million vehicles in 2020, the demand for charging facilities in the market in the next few years is at the level of millions. After preliminary exploration, the effectiveness of charging facilities construction will be greatly increased, and the spring of charging facilities industry is coming.

4. The prospect of Shared vehicles is promising, but the operational risk and pressure gradually increase

As a new service mode to improve the efficiency of vehicle use and increase the convenience of personal travel, the future is promising in the long run.

In the past few years, the sharing vehicles featuring time-sharing lease have basically completed a round of adjustment and elimination, and the independent operation group relying on capital and the travel service exploration group relying on whole-vehicle enterprises are two major forces at present.

With the continuous expansion of the operation scale and the expansion of the operation area, the difficulty and pressure of the operation of Shared vehicles are increasing, which forces the operation enterprises to practice the content, innovate the mode and explore the way out.

5. The national standard of low-speed electric vehicles is coming, and the market will continue to maintain a savage growth

The low-speed electric vehicle has the strength to replace the fuel vehicle of the same level, but lacks the technical standard and standard management, has been suppressed, barbaric growth.

Under the support of the subsidy policy, the low-price electric A0 and A00 market and the advantages of license plate have a certain impact on the low-speed car market. A large number of low-speed car users have been harvested and the market sales are most popular.

2018 new subsidy policy adjustment, forced to upgrade to range, significantly improve vehicle costs, part models too reliant on subsidies is expected to exit the market, do not rely on subsidies, temporarily don't need the registration of low-speed electric cars are expected to come back, to regain lost ground, is expected to be relatively loose three or four line city traffic management policy in a new round of rapid growth.

6. Taxis and electric logistics vehicles are expected to become the hot spots of the next round of urban transportation electrification

The effective market of new energy bus is close to saturation. Taxi and logistics car, as a field of government procurement and urban traffic control, are expected to usher in a new round of electrification.

Driven by more and more demonstration cities, urban electrification will take the lead in these two fields, among which, electric logistics vehicles are very huge in operation scale and driving ability of the industry.

7. Channel mode innovation is at its peak, and various explorations emerge endlessly

New energy vehicles come with new genes from birth, and the exploration of new models never stops. Direct sales, distribution, operation and various sales promotion models are emerging one after another. At present, it is too early to make judgments and make conclusions.

Users in the first - and second-tier markets are relatively concentrated and generally have experience in buying cars and using the model of direct store experience can greatly improve the user experience. Meanwhile, the direct store is built in the area where users are concentrated, which is more conducive to reaching target customers and the communication of products and brands.

The users in third-and fourth-tier cities are relatively dispersed, and many first-time car purchases make the traditional model of 4S stores more likely to gain users' trust, and it will be more economical and effective to serve customers through dealers.

Many companies are exploring and practicing the mode of selling vehicles by offering vehicles or charging services to potential users. In the initial stage, they mainly focus on the procurement of major customers, and the effectiveness of individual car purchasing needs to be further explored.

New energy used car circulation, power battery recycling will become a hot spot

Since 2014 new energy vehicles start mass marketed, early because of vehicle technology is not mature, lack of crude product design, quality stability, has started to idle, can't meet the demand of use and power battery also began to appear in bulk retired, the vehicles and the handling of the battery will be on the agenda, otherwise the future will form a huge idle resources, become the "quake lakes", industry development in 2018 should be a opportunity to enter the field.